B1G Championship Preview and Prediction

In a college football season filled with cancellations and unknowns, we know this for sure: Ohio State and Northwestern will face off in the B1G Championship this weekend. The Buckeyes, who have won the B1G the past 3 seasons and are looking to secure a CFP spot, look to keep their title against a surprising Northwestern team in Indianapolis. Here’s what you should know.

Coming into Saturday, the Buckeyes have a 91% chance to win, and for good reason. It has everything to do with their high powered offense. Justin Fields has been the leader of the offense for the past two seasons and just seems to improve with every game. OSU has the sixth ranked offense in the nation and is fourth in points per game. They have weapons in Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson that defenses have yet to have an answer for. They’ve both accounted for over 70% of OSU’s catches and receiving yards and are crucial to the offense. In the backfield, veteran running backs Master Teague and Trey Sermon have bolstered a burgeoning run game. Needless to say, they are dangerous in every position. The offense is the Buckeyes greatest strength. On the other side of the ball, pass defense has been a liability all season. The secondary has allowed 268.8 passing yards per game, with a lot of that damage coming against a bombs away barrage from Michael Penix Jr. and Indiana. A little regression was expected from last season with the losses of Jeff Okudah, Damon Arnette, and Jordan Fuller, but maybe not to the extent they’ve seen. They’ve had their share of good moments and their performance against Michigan State was an improvement, but we’ve yet to see a consistent Ohio State pass defense. Rushing defense is no issue. They’re sixth in the nation with 95 rushing yards allowed per game. They’ve gotten strong play from the front seven all season. If anything prevents them from winning, it will most likely be a talented but inconsistent passing defense.

Northwestern comes into Saturday huge underdogs and I’m sure they don’t mind. They’ve had their share of doubters all season and now they find themselves playing for a conference championship. They’ve gotten there on the back of their defense. This defense will be the Buckeyes greatest test this season. With the thirteenth ranked defense in the country, the Wildcats have allowed only 14.6 points per game and 313 yards per game. They have three First Team All-B1G Defenders in Paddy Fisher, Greg Newsome II, and freshman newcomer Brandon Joseph. Expect them to make some plays for this defense. For Northwestern’s offense, they’ve been fine. They’re towards the bottom in points per game and passing yards per game, but tout the 60th ranked rushing offense. If Northwestern wants to win, they’re going to have to get the offense going. There’s no doubt their defense is going to cause fits, but Payton Ramsey and the Wildcat offense will need to make some plays against a suspect Buckeyes defense to have a chance.

Something's got to give this weekend. Either the Buckeye offense dominates Northwestern’s defense, or Northwestern’s offense takes advantage of a weaker Buckeye defense. I think whoever flips the script this weekend will win. For Northwestern, they’re going to have to get after Justin Fields. They’ve had struggles getting to the quarterback this season, with only ten sacks through seven games. If they can contain Justin Fields, they give themselves a much better shot of winning. For Ohio State, they need to start strong and finish strong. In the first half of their football games, they’ve been incredible, out-scoring opponents 136-30. But in the second half, they’re only out-scoring opponents 97-85. They’ve been a first half team and have not been able to close out games. They have to remain consistent from kickoff to final whistle. If they let Northwestern stay in the game for very long, it may cause some unwanted trouble.

Prediction: Ohio State wins 45-17. Northwestern is the best defense Ohio State has faced thus far but I also believe Ohio State is the best offense Northwestern has faced. I give the advantage to Justin Fields and the ultra-talented Buckeyes offense. I think they start the game out hot, playing with a sense of urgency and a “win and you’re in” mentality. Northwestern will compete and play hard, there’s no doubt about that. I just don’t think they’ll be able to keep up with OSU’s athletes.